Forecasting models utilize cutting-edge knowledge in earthquake physics and statistical analysis, relying on datasets such as seismic activity, geological features, and geophysical measurements. These models are crucial for applications like Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF), by informing about earthquake occurrence probabilities within a given region and time frame.
Testing these models and their underlying hypotheses against real, prospective data (i.e., recorded after forecasts are issued) helps unravel the mechanisms behind earthquake occurrence. This also informs the use, selection, and weighting of model components for PSHA and OEF systems. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) leads global efforts to test earthquake forecasting models, providing a standardized, transparent, and reproducible experimental framework. This framework ensures that today’s forecasts set a benchmark for future developments.
The CSEP European node has developed open-software tools (floatCSEP, hazard2csep) for deploying time-independent and time-dependent earthquake forecast experiments. These tools have been validated through past experiments and are now being used to stage new experiments in Italy, Switzerland, and Europe.
This service is currently in progress as part of WP3 within the Geo-INQUIRE project.
Italian seismic catalog (ISIDE) for the upcoming 2024 Time-Dependent experiment.
https://cseptesting.org/italy2024experiment
The work presented in this website is funded by the European Commission under project number 101058518 within the HORIZON-INFRA-2021-SERV-01 call.
floatCSEP
